And when they were down, they were down...

It's fair to say we've been banging on quite a bit recently about title chases, promotion and relegation but if you can't do it now, when can you do it?

One thing we find quite interesting is to see how well teams relegated from the top-flight last year are doing one year on - that is to say 'will they gain promotion back to where they were at the first attempt?'

Here in England, only one of the three teams relegated from the Premier League last year, Birmingham City, will be returning for 2009/10. City finished second in the Championship this season, just six points ahead of Reading who reached the promotion play-offs but ultimately failed at the semi-final stage against Burnley.

The last of the three teams to go down were Derby, and things got considerably worse for them in 2008/09. They finished in 18th spot, just four positions above the relegation zone, yet in some ways this is perhaps to be expected. Quite often a team that gets relegated one year will find themselves in the lower regions of their new league the following year, as has been proved across the continent.

Spain is a good place to start where this kind of thing's concerned. Last season, Murcia finished next to bottom in La Liga and now find themselves languishing in 15th spot in the Segunda División. Despite winning promotion back to La Liga on numerous occasions - most recently in 2003 and 2007 - they could yet go down to the Segunda División B in 2009.

Hansa Rostock are another good example of this. In 2007/08, they were relegated as the second worst team in the Bundesliga, but far from bouncing straight back this season, they face the prospect of having to beat already-relegated Wehen this Sunday to avoid the indignity of a relegation play-off the following week.

Some countries, however, have seen better performances from their relegated teams this season. In Italy, Parma have already secured promotion back to Serie A while Empoli and Livorno have every chance of following them via the end-of-season play-offs.

France, too, has been a good place for relegated teams to show their ambitions. Lens currently sit at the top of Ligue 2 having secured their promotion with two games to go while Strasbourg and Metz currently occupy third and fourth. Both could yet usurp Montpellier to take the remaining two promotion places.

You do, of course, see some relegated teams return to their footballing peak with a real flourish, as can be said for VVV Venlo in Holland and Sint-Truiden in Belgium. Both have finished this season as second-tier champions and won't be concerning themselves with any distracting and nonsensical play-offs, thank you very much.

Some teams won't be as fortunate, however. There'll be much chewing of fingernails when Nürnberg play their promotion decider against one of the current bottom four in Germany's Bundesliga. It could even be Borussia Mönchengladbach, ironically - the team who came up as champions at the end of the 2007/08 season.

And spare a thought for Excelsior who dropped into Holland's Eerste Divisie at the end of last season. They finished fifth in the table a fortnight ago which qualified them for the promotion play-offs which are played over not two but three rounds. Having received a bye to Round 2, they now face the prospect of playing RKC Waalwijk over not two but three legs... and that's just to get through to another three-leg tie in the final round. Excelsior find themselves 2-1 down from the first leg and the second leg will be played tomorrow evening (20:00 CET).

All of which highlights only too clearly why some teams do their utmost to avoid relegation in the first place. Though a relegated team is often cast as favourites to return to the top division the following season, it's by no means guaranteed. It can even be the start of something amounting to a freefall down the leagues, and that's when you know whether your team's got the will to survive or not.

Occasional Graph #1

Last December, Some People Are On The Pitch brought you a seasonal series called 'The 12 Graphs of Christmas'. By our own modest standards it was rather successful and prompted many of you to send us some lovely comments which we were very grateful for.

Now, hot on the heels of that series, we give you more of the same. It's our intention to occasionally bring you a graph that shows off a set of football statistics, and with that in mind we've given this new series a cunningly cryptic name. We're calling it 'Occasional Graph'.

So to begin with, here's an image showing the highest number of points won by a relegated team in each Premier League season from 1995/96 onwards. Think of it as a guide for anyone supporting West Brom, Middlesbrough, Newcastle, Hull and so on.

As usual, a bigger version of the image can be seen simply by clicking on it. Much more than that we need not say. Enjoy...

The Axeman Cometh...

It's come to this, then... While Manchester United and Chelsea fight over who should have the Premier League trophy for the coming year, four teams will fight just to survive in the top flight.

Derby County have already succumbed to the executioner's axe, which means two relegation places need to be filled, and by 5pm BST today either Bolton Wanderers, Birmingham City, Fulham or Reading will fill them.

The way things stand at the moment, Reading and Birmingham occupy those remaining places, but such is the closeness of all the teams involved that the axe could come down on almost anyone.

That said, there are a couple of things to note. Firstly Bolton are definitely in the best place at the moment, being that they're three places ahead of their nearest rivals, Fulham, and two places clear of the drop zone.

That means if Bolton get a draw away to Chelsea today, they'll be safe, no matter what the others do.

Then there's Birmingham. They're only one point behind Reading and Fulham and have a far better goal difference than the two of them. That gives us the situation that if Birmingham avoid defeat at home to Blackburn today and Reading and Fulham lose, Birmingham will stay up.

The fact of the matter, though, is that Birmingham look likely to go down today. Many of the possible permutations from today's results will see Alex McLeish's men demoted to the Championship, and if that's the case, it should be interesting seeing who takes the last place between Reading and Fulham.

All of which brings us to the handy Relegation Calculator that SPAOTP have designed for you. When all the important matches get underway today, you might want to know who's set to go down and who'll stay up, so why not use the chart below? It'll give you many of the outcome permutations just by cross-referencing who's doing what in each game involving Bolton, Fulham, Reading and Birmingham.

And before you check it out, we've left out all the permutations involving Bolton winning for the reasons mentioned above and yes, we know the writing's a bit small, but that's easily alleviated. Just click on the image to see a bigger, clearer version.



The best of British luck, then, to all the teams involved. Oh and by the way - who do you think will go down today? Leave us a comment and let us know!

Staying Alive

When the 2006/2007 Premiership season started on August 19th, all eyes naturally focused on the two extremes of the top flight. On the one hand, the perennial heavyweights vying for the title with international superstars and open cheque books on standby. On the other hand, there were the three new teams promoted from the Championship - Reading, Watford and Sheffield United. Would they stay up? What chance would they have of achieving any success? Questions that are asked year in and year out, but what’s the reality for those daring to set foot in the top flight?

Ask anyone to predict the Premiership final table at the start of the season and the chances are they’ll pick at least two of the three new teams to go straight back down again. The thing is, over the last 25 years (on average) only one of the three teams ends up being relegated. Perhaps, then, the job of getting promotion and staying up isn’t such a tough task after all. Some teams even go on to greater success after making the step up, but for every tale of miraculous survival there’s always one that speaks of failure and despair.

Foxes Tale

At the end of the 1979/80 season, Leicester City sat proudly on top of Division 2 looking down on those that challenged them for a place alongside the big boys. Things were different back then. Division 2 boasted such sleeping giants as Chelsea, Queen’s Park Rangers, Newcastle United and Charlton Athletic, but none of them were ready to wake from their slumber and secure promotion to Division 1.

Leicester City were and they entered the top flight full of hope and optimism but unbeknownst to them or their fans, it was to be the first of three instances between then and now where promotion was followed by relegation the following season. In 1981, they finished 21st out of 22 and down they went once again.

Leicester City are one of a particular brand of clubs who, for many years, have made a habit of yo-yoing up and down, but at least they’ve got the satisfaction of knowing they’ve never dropped lower than the second tier of English league football. If you ask any fan of Swansea City or Wolverhampton Wanderers about the importance of going up and staying up, they’re likely to tell you how bad it can really get.

Boom and bust

When, in 1978, former Liverpool legend John Toshack took over as manager of Swansea City at the tender age of 28, they soon embarked on a run that saw them gain promotion from Division 4 to Division 1 in four seasons. In 1982 they arrived in the top flight and looked like they meant business. Their first game of the season saw former Everton player Bob Latchford score a hat-trick to help defeat Leeds United 5-1 and further victories over Arsenal, Manchester United, Tottenham and Liverpool soon followed.

At the end of the 1981/82 season, Swansea City had finished sixth in Division 1. An incredible achievement, but the story didn’t end there. Poor form and financial difficulties saw Swansea relegated in 1983 and the same happened again in 1984. John Toshack was sacked, the club teetered on the brink of bankruptcy and by 1987 they were back in Division 4. Their meteoric rise had been matched for swiftness by that of their unrelenting self-destruction.

Wolves can also tell of pride coming before a big fall. Along with QPR and Leicester (again), they secured promotion to the First Division in 1983, but when they stood on the trap door, the drop they were about to experience was even faster than Swansea’s. Where Toshack’s men fell three divisions in four seasons, Wolverhampton Wanderers needed one less.

Fulfilled potential

For most teams promoted to the top tier of football in this country, it’s fair to say that many aim simply to avoid relegation (and a fair proportion do), but some can claim to have gone one better.

Clubs like Ipswich, Watford, QPR, Norwich and Newcastle United have all followed up a promotion season with a top-five finish the following year but for the ultimate consolidation of a place in the big league, you need look no further than Leeds United and Blackburn Rovers.

Having successfully climbed out of Division Two at the end of the 1989/90 season, Leeds found themselves crowned Division 1 Champions just two years later. This was matched by Blackburn Rovers who finished top of the Premier League in their third season out of the old First Division, but even this isn’t necessarily a sign of better times to come. Both Leeds and Blackburn have since been relegated again and in the case of Leeds, a return to the Premiership is yet to arrive.

The new boys

So what about the 2006 vintage - Reading, Watford and Sheffield United? For inspiration, they should turn to Wigan and West Ham who gained promotion the previous season. Wigan were most people’s choice for relegation but they finished a respectable 10th. As for West Ham, they finished one place above them and were runners-up to Liverpool in the FA Cup Final. A place in the UEFA Cup now awaits.

Steve Coppell’s Reading have the potential to stay up in the Premiership but this is their first season ever in the top flight, so how they will fare is open to debate. Sheffield United have been here before - they came up with Leeds in 1990 but four years later they dropped out of the Premier League in its second season. They look set to struggle this season and are many people’s favourites to finish bottom.

Graham Taylor’s Watford had a textbook promotion back in 1982. On arrival in Division 1 they finished second only to Liverpool but relegation came to haunt them in 1988 and they dropped a further division again in 1996. With Graham Taylor back in charge of Watford for a second time, they miraculously returned to the Premiership in 2000 but it was to be for just one season. Like Sheffield United, they will have their work cut out simply avoiding relegation.

Three of a kind?

Is it possible that all three teams will get relegated this season? Maybe, but in the last 25 years it’s only ever happened once - in 1998. Then, the three teams that came up in 1997 - Barnsley, Bolton and Crystal Palace - all went straight back where they came from before we'd even had the chance to get to know them.

If things occur as they usually do, however, one of this year’s debutantes will thrive, one will only just stay up and the other will face relegation. Yet even though the drop may be avoided in the first instance, new clubs always end up looking nervously over their shoulder for years to come. It seems if they’re to learn anything from the likes of Leicester City, it’s that relegation is never all that far away…